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“Computational Correlational Studies of Tropical Cyclone Energetic with Dynamical Fluid Motions and Physical features of Meso-Scale Convective Systems to Develop Tropical Cyclone Numerical Forecasting Models (TC-NFM)”.
  • Dr.Virendra Goswami
Dr.Virendra Goswami
Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) & ‘Environment and Peace Foundation’)

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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The efforts are to test, evaluate, and improve predictions of Tropical Cyclone’s track, intensity, speed, and inner core Structure, beyond 5 days, through the study of Tropical Cyclone Energetic in correlation with dynamical fluid motions and physical features (e.g. radiative transfer, chemistry, cloud processes), of mesoscale NH-SH Convective systems in order to develop a unique Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models (TCFM), acting as Operational real-time forecast guidance for all Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes across the Atlantic, Asia Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and SH-Ocean basins. The key to this new prediction system (TC-NFM) would be the development of very fine (1deg–1deg) grid nests moving with individual storms within the global model, having a coupling capability for these nests in space & time mode. (TC-NFM) would be coupled to Atlantic, and North Indian Ocean basins Storms, so that its grid filter gets updated whenever there are active cyclonic storms in these basins. High-resolution Satellite imageries of the two Super Cyclonic Storms (SCS) over the Atlantic& North Indian Oceanic basins that occurred during May-October 2020 would be examined with emphasis on the large scale kinematic and thermodynamic behavior of these two SCS, viz. Laura’(Atlantic,26Aug’20,240Kmph,937hPaAmphan’(BOB,17May’20,240Kmph,920hPa) and other selected mesoscale Convective Systems, e.g. intense Cloud Clusters Thunderstorms, by making use of Aircraft, Doppler Weather Radar and conventional data over the selected domain in order to study mathematical and computational aspects of weather and climate through the spatial structure of Cloud field incorporating the Hurricane Weather Research Forecast Models. Based on Suchman, Martin, Sikdar (1977), Cloud Cluster studies, and of Goswami. V.K et.al. (1990); wherein, the two plausible Models of Monsoon Depression have been postulated in terms of Cluster Coalescence Theory and Giant Cluster Theory, would be employed to study the said two SCS over Atlantic & North Indian Oceanic basins during the Storm-Cycle (May-Oct)’20 to develop (TC-NFM). KEYWORDS: Energetic, Meso-Scale Convective Systems, Cluster Coalescence Theory, Giant Cluster Theory, Tropical Cyclone Numerical Forecasting Models-TCNFM.