Abstract
We study the effects of pore fluid pressure (Pf) on the pre-earthquake,
near-fault stress state and 3D earthquake rupture dynamics through 6
scenarios utilizing a structural model based on the 2004 Mw9.1
Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. As pre-earthquake Pf magnitude increases,
effective normal stress and fault shear strength decrease. As a result,
magnitude, slip, peak slip rate, stress drop and rupture velocity of the
scenario earthquakes decrease. Comparison of results with observations
of the 2004 earthquake support that pre-earthquake Pf averages near 97
% of lithostatic pressure, leading to pre-earthquake average shear and
effective normal tractions of 4-5 MPa and 22 MPa. The megathrust in
these scenarios is weak, in terms of low mean shear traction at static
failure and low dynamic friction coefficient during rupture. Apparent
co-seismic principal stress rotations and absolute post-seismic stresses
in these scenarios are consistent with the variety of observed
aftershock focal mechanisms. In all scenarios, the mean apparent stress
rotations are larger in the accretionary wedge above than below the
megathrust. Scenarios with larger Pf magnitudes exhibit lower mean
apparent principal stress rotations. We further evaluate pre-earthquake
Pf depth distribution. If Pf follows a sub-lithostatic gradient,
pre-earthquake effective normal stress increases with depth. If Pf
follows the lithostatic gradient exactly, then this normal stress is
constant, shifting peak slip and peak slip rate up-dip. This renders
constraints on near-trench strength and constitutive behavior crucial
for mitigating hazard. These scenarios provide opportunity for future
calibration with site-specific measurements to constrain dynamically
plausible megathrust strength and Pf gradients.