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Predicting Solar Flares using CNN and LSTM on Two Solar Cycles of Active Region Data
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  • Zeyu Sun,
  • Monica Bobra,
  • Xiantong Wang,
  • Yu Wang,
  • Hu Sun,
  • Tamas Gombosi,
  • Yang Chen,
  • Alfred Hero
Zeyu Sun
University of Michigan, University of Michigan, University of Michigan

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Monica Bobra
Stanford University, Stanford University, Stanford University
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Xiantong Wang
University of Michigan, University of Michigan, University of Michigan
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Yu Wang
University of Michigan, University of Michigan, University of Michigan
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Hu Sun
University of Michigan, University of Michigan, University of Michigan
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Tamas Gombosi
University of Michigan, University of Michigan, University of Michigan
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Yang Chen
University of Michigan, University of Michigan, University of Michigan
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Alfred Hero
University of Michigan, University of Michigan, University of Michigan
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Abstract

One major challenge of solar flare prediction with machine learning methods is the scarcity of large flares. This issue of low positive sample size is even more severe for data observed in the relatively weak Solar Cycle 24, for example, the SHARPs data product. This partly hampers the successful application of deep learning methods, especially those dealing with high-dimensional spatial and/or temporal data. By joining SHARPs with Space-Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARPs), a new data product derived from observations in Solar Cycle 23, we are able to obtain a fused dataset with nearly tripled positive samples. We evaluated two deep learning methods, LSTM and CNN, using the selected parameter sequences and image snapshots in the fused dataset. Experiment results show that the two models trained on the fused dataset achieve better or equivalent test set performance than those trained on a single solar cycle. In addition, we demonstrate the improvement of the performance of the stacking ensemble that combines LSTM and CNN. We provided interpretation to CNN using modern visual attribution methods in computer vision. The results show that CNN is able to identify flare-related signatures in magnetograms.