Abstract
Between 26–29 January 2021 an atmospheric river (AR) triggered numerous
debris flows within the 2020 Dolan wildfire burn scar in Big Sur,
California. Here we modify WRF-Hydro to simulate both overland and
channelized flows and assess the potential for runoff-generated
debris-flow hazards in burn scars. High-resolution weather radar-derived
precipitation is used to drive baseline and burn scar sensitivity
experiments. Compared to the baseline, the burn scar simulation yields
dramatic increases in total and peak discharge, as well as shorter lags
between rainfall onset and peak discharge. At Rat Creek, where
California Highway 1 was destroyed, discharge volume increased
eight-fold and peak discharge tripled relative to the baseline. Our
WRF-Hydro-based hazard assessment indicates that over 1/3 of Dolan burn
scar catchments were under “very high” debris-flow hazards. Our work
demonstrates that a modified version of WRF-Hydro provides a compelling
new physics-based tool to investigate and potentially predict postfire
hydrologic hazards.