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Use of WRF-Hydro to Simulate Runoff-Generated Debris Flow Hazards in Burn Scars
  • +6
  • Chuxuan Li,
  • Alexander L Handwerger,
  • Jiali Wang,
  • Wei Yu,
  • Xiang Li,
  • Noah Joseph Finnegan,
  • Yingying Xie,
  • Giuseppe Buscarnera,
  • Daniel E Horton
Chuxuan Li
Northwestern University, Northwestern University

Corresponding Author:chuxuanli2020@u.northwestern.edu

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Alexander L Handwerger
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech
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Jiali Wang
Argonne National Laboratory (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory (DOE)
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Wei Yu
Weather Tech LLC., Weather Tech LLC.
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Xiang Li
Northwestern University, Northwestern University
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Noah Joseph Finnegan
University of California, Santa Cruz, University of California, Santa Cruz
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Yingying Xie
Purdue University, Purdue University
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Giuseppe Buscarnera
Northwestern University, Northwestern University
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Daniel E Horton
Northwestern University, Northwestern University
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Abstract

Between 26–29 January 2021 an atmospheric river (AR) triggered numerous debris flows within the 2020 Dolan wildfire burn scar in Big Sur, California. Here we modify WRF-Hydro to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess the potential for runoff-generated debris-flow hazards in burn scars. High-resolution weather radar-derived precipitation is used to drive baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Compared to the baseline, the burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge, as well as shorter lags between rainfall onset and peak discharge. At Rat Creek, where California Highway 1 was destroyed, discharge volume increased eight-fold and peak discharge tripled relative to the baseline. Our WRF-Hydro-based hazard assessment indicates that over 1/3 of Dolan burn scar catchments were under “very high” debris-flow hazards. Our work demonstrates that a modified version of WRF-Hydro provides a compelling new physics-based tool to investigate and potentially predict postfire hydrologic hazards.