Spatio-temporal variability of change points at the scale of the Congo
watershed using the Bayessian approach
The Lee and Heghinian’s bayesian approach was applied to CRU TS 3.1 grid
precipitation data to detect change points at the Congo watershed scale.
The locations that were sensitive to change point have been widely
detected during 1969 and have been grouped in two zones that are located
mainly in (a) the sub-basins of Bangui and (b) the Kasai and in the
Cuvette Centrale. The signal of the persistence over two zones has been
estimated at 8 years and 15 years covering respectively the period
1966-1973 (78% of the years on the total area) and 19661-1975 (68% of
the years on the total area). Moreover, the change points over mentioned
zones are respectively associated with 85% and 77% of the negative
values of the shift magnitude. However, about 20.0% and 10.6% of the
total area of the Congo watershed were sensitive to change points and
the base of precipitation, respectively.