loading page

Do Spatiotemporal Variations Exist in the Event-size Distribution of Extraction-Induced Seismicity in the Groningen Gas Field?
  • Annemarie Gerredina Muntendam-Bos,
  • Niels Grobbe
Annemarie Gerredina Muntendam-Bos
State Supervision of Mines (Netherlands)

Corresponding Author:a.g.muntendam-bos@sodm.nl

Author Profile
Niels Grobbe
University of Hawaii at Manoa
Author Profile


The scaling of event sizes is one of the critical parameters controlling seismic hazard and risk. For induced seismicity, the non-stationary, heterogeneous character of subsurface stress perturbations can be a source of spatiotemporal variations in the scaling of event sizes. We analyse the spatiotemporal variations in the earthquake-size distribution of the Groningen induced seismicity catalogue using a method that circumvents arbitrary choices requiring a priori knowledge of these variations while systematically exploring the effect of possible bias in the derivation. Our results show that the b-value is spatially variable with indications of a temporal decrease. This spatiotemporal pattern may be explained by a stress-dependent b-value. At the same time, we postulate that the event-size distribution is tapered at a single, regional corner magnitude. Our results imply that the current risk assessment models overestimate the probability of larger magnitude events (M≥3.5) in the Groningen gas field and thus the risk posed.