Abstract
In 2019 southern hemisphere spring, a strong stratospheric warming event
was predicted to force the southern annular mode (SAM) into a negative
phase and adversely impact surface weather and Australian bushfire
season for several months. Even though the negative SAM materialized
towards late spring and summer, it was delayed by more than a month
compared to model forecasts. Instead, the immediate surface response was
a positive SAM through September and much of October. Here we show that
the immediate surface response was a result of circulation changes
forced by anomalously high ozone concentrations which occur during
stratospheric warming events. The longer term tropospheric response was
well predicted and is due to a different process acting on longer time
scales. Capturing this coupling between dynamics and radiation in models
is only possible with the inclusion of interactive ozone, which explains
why most seasonal forecasting systems failed to capture it.