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Ozone-forced Southern Annular Mode during Antarctic Stratospheric Warming Events
  • Martin Jucker,
  • Rishav Goyal
Martin Jucker
University of New South Wales, University of New South Wales, University of New South Wales, University of New South Wales

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Rishav Goyal
University of New South Wales, University of New South Wales, University of New South Wales, University of New South Wales
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Abstract

In 2019 southern hemisphere spring, a strong stratospheric warming event was predicted to force the southern annular mode (SAM) into a negative phase and adversely impact surface weather and Australian bushfire season for several months. Even though the negative SAM materialized towards late spring and summer, it was delayed by more than a month compared to model forecasts. Instead, the immediate surface response was a positive SAM through September and much of October. Here we show that the immediate surface response was a result of circulation changes forced by anomalously high ozone concentrations which occur during stratospheric warming events. The longer term tropospheric response was well predicted and is due to a different process acting on longer time scales. Capturing this coupling between dynamics and radiation in models is only possible with the inclusion of interactive ozone, which explains why most seasonal forecasting systems failed to capture it.
28 Feb 2022Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 49 issue 4. 10.1029/2021GL095270