Abstract
Discontinuities in flood frequency curves, here referred to as step
changes, hinder the estimation of high return levels of streamflow. In
this paper, we develop a robust and objective methodology for the
detection of step changes, and apply it to a large dataset of catchments
in the USA and Germany. Given the statistical uncertainty of observed
time series due to their limited sample size, we then assess the
reliability of a PHysically-based Extreme Value (PHEV) distribution of
river flows to identify catchments that might experience a step change.
Results show that PHEV is suitable for step changes detection, with a
high correct detection rate especially in the autumn and summer seasons,
whereas it tends to often show a step change not visible in the
observations in spring and winter (seasons typically characterized by
persistent flow regimes with reduced likelihood of exhibiting relatively
large floods), for which we examine the possible reasons. By means of a
controlled experiment we re-evaluate the step change detection method on
true positive cases (i.e., when both observations and PHEV display a
step change) discarding the highest maxima. PHEV confirms its capability
to detect a step change, as observed in the original flood frequency
curve, even if the shortened one does not show it. These findings prove
the reliability of PHEV for the identification of step changes,
especially relevant in scarce data regions, and set the premises for a
deeper investigation of physiographic and hydroclimatic attributes
controlling the emergence of discontinuities in flood frequency curves.