Optimizing Phenology Parameters Drastically Improves Terrestrial
Biosphere Model Underestimates of Dryland Net CO2 Flux Inter-Annual
Variability
Russ Scott

United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, AZ 85719, USA, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, AZ 85719, USA, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, AZ 85719, USA
Author ProfileAbstract
Dryland ecosystems occupy ~40% of the land surface and
are thought to dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term
trend of the global carbon (C) cycle. Therefore, it is imperative that
global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), which form the land
component of IPCC earth system models, are able to accurately simulate
dryland vegetation and biogeochemical processes. However, compared to
more mesic ecosystems, TBMs have not been widely tested or optimized
against in situ dryland ecosystem CO2 fluxes. Here, we address this gap
using a Bayesian data assimilation system and 89 site-years of daily net
CO2 flux (net ecosystem exchange - NEE) data from 12 southwest US
Ameriflux sites spanning forest, shrub and grass dryland ecosystems to
evaluate and optimize the C cycle related parameters of the ORCHIDEE
TBM. We find that the default (prior) model simulations drastically
underestimate both the mean annual NEE and the NEE IAV. By testing
different assimilation scenarios, we showed that optimizing phenology
parameters dramatically improves the model ability across all sites to
capture both the magnitude and sign of the NEE IAV. At high elevation
forested sites, which are a mean C sink, optimizing parameters related
to C allocation, respiration and turnover reduces the underestimate in
simulated mean annual NEE. Our study demonstrates that all TBMs need to
be calibrated specifically for dryland ecosystems before they are used
to determine dryland contributions to global C cycle variability and
long-term carbon-climate feedbacks.