Long-term trends in urban NO2 concentrations and associated pediatric
asthma cases: estimates from global datasets
Abstract
Background: Levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a combustion-related air
pollutant largely associated with traffic in urban areas, have been
changing rapidly due to competing influences of regulation and
population and fossil fuel-powered economic expansion. Traffic-related
NO2 is associated with pediatric asthma incidence in epidemiological
studies around the world. We aim to assess long-term trends in NO2
concentrations and NO2-attributable pediatric asthma incidence in cities
globally. Methods: We estimate global annual average surface NO2
concentrations at 1km resolution for 1990-2019 by combining land use
regression model predictions with NO2 column densities from the Ozone
Monitoring Instrument satellite sensor. We use these concentrations with
an epidemiologically-derived concentration-response factor, population,
and baseline disease rates to estimate NO2-attributable pediatric asthma
incidence. We explore trends over the last two decades. Findings: We
found diverging regional trends leading to an emerging global
convergence in urban NO2 concentrations globally from 2000-2019.
Concentrations are high but declining in high-income countries and low
but rising elsewhere. Estimated NO2-attributable pediatric asthma
incidence shows similar trends with decreases of 28-56% in North
America, Western and Central Europe, and Australasia, but increases of
>50% in Central and South Asia and >100% in
Sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Traffic-related air pollution
continues to be an important contributor to pediatric asthma incidence
in cities in both developed and developing countries. Divergent
experiences of different world regions show that while population growth
is worsening NO2 levels with substantial implications for children’s
health in Asia and Africa, rapid and substantial NO2 declines are
possible with effective regulations. Funding: Health Effects Institute
and NASA