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Global Simulation of Land Use/Cover Change Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Impacts On Aboveground Biomass Carbon
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  • Li Zeng,
  • Xiaoping Liu,
  • Wenhao Li,
  • Jinpei Ou,
  • Yiling Cai,
  • Manchun Li,
  • Guandong Li,
  • Honghui Zhang,
  • Guangzhao Chen,
  • Xiaocong Xu
Li Zeng
Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University
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Xiaoping Liu
Sun Yat-sen University
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Wenhao Li
Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University
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Jinpei Ou
Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University
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Yiling Cai
Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University
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Manchun Li
Nanjing University
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Guandong Li
Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Honghui Zhang
Guangdong Guodi Planning Science Technology Co.,ltd
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Guangzhao Chen
Sun Yat-Sen University
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Xiaocong Xu
Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Land use change driven by human activities plays a critical role in terrestrial carbon budget through habitats loss and vegetation change. Despite projections of global population and economic growth under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been analyzed, little is known about land use /cover change (LUCC) at a fine spatial resolution and how carbon pools respond to LUCC under different SSP scenarios. Here, we projected the future global LUCC at 1‐km spatial resolution and 10‐year time step from 2010 to 2100, after which its direct impacts on aboveground biomass carbon (AGB) under SSP scenarios were explored. We found that scenario SSP3 yields the highest global cropland expansion, among which about 48% is expected to locate in current forest land and 46% locate in current grassland. Scenario SSP1 has the largest forest expansion, and it is mainly converted from the grassland (54%) and cropland (30%). Due to the spatial change of land use/cover, global AGB loss is expected to reach about 9.16 Pg C in 2100 under scenario SSP3 while increase about 1.75 Pg C under scenario SSP1. Africa is expected to undergo 58% loss of AGB under scenario SSP3. Aboveground biomass in Asia will fix 3.05 Pg C to reverse the AGB loss in 2100 under scenario SSP1. These findings suggest land use development and management is one of key measures to mitigate negative impacts of LUCC on biomass carbon pool.