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Stochastic Simulation of Tropical Cyclones for Risk Assessment at One Go: A Multivariate Functional PCA Approach
  • Chi Yang,
  • Jing Xu,
  • Jianming Yin
Chi Yang
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University

Corresponding Author:chi@bnu.edu.cn

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Jing Xu
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
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Jianming Yin
China Re Catastrophe Risk Management Company LTD., China Re Catastrophe Risk Management Company LTD.
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A multivariate functional principal component analysis (PCA) approach to the full-track simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) for risk assessment is developed. Elemental variables of TC along the track necessary for risk assessment, such as center coordinates, maximum wind speed, minimum central pressure and ordinal dates, can be simulated simultaneously at one go, using solely the best-track data with no data supplemented from any other sources. The simulation model is optimally determined by means of the ladle estimator. A TC occurrence model using the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution is proposed as well, by which different dispersion features of annual occurrence can be represented in a unified manner. With the occurrence model, TCs can be simulated on an annual basis. The modeling and simulation process is programmed and fully automated such that little manual intervention is required, which greatly improves the modeling efficiency and reduces the turnaround time, especially when newly available TC data are incorporated periodically into the model. Comprehensive evaluation shows that this approach is capable of generating high-performance synthetic TCs in terms of distributional and extreme value features, which can be used in conjunction with wind field and engineering vulnerability models to estimate economic and insurance losses for governments and insurance/reinsurance industry.