Abstract
Investigating watershed hydrology from a data-driven causal perspective
consists of an attractive opportunity to characterize and understand
relationships between water storages and fluxes. Previous studies have
focused on assessing causal interactions of individual hydrologic
processes along with their environmental drivers. Here we assess
integrally how the water balance components interact with themselves,
aiming to find relevant time-lags or dependency patterns. Granger
causality test and time-lagged mutual information were used in a
pairwise approach to examine cause-effect relationships between
precipitation, streamflow, groundwater levels under different
land-covers, and evapotranspiration data (daily timescale) from 2009 to
2019 in a Brazilian watershed (5200 ha), located in a recharge area of
the Guarani Aquifer System. A verification assessment using synthetic
datasets shows that the methods are effective to identify the underlying
generating mechanisms. Statistically significant causal connections were
confirmed in practically all pairs of observed data. Granger’s causality
indicates that groundwater and streamflow responses are influenced by
precipitation even with a lag of 1-day, while evapotranspiration can
take more than 200 days to influence groundwater responses, depending on
the water table depth and surrounding land-cover. From the mutual
information curves, the first local peaks are possibly associated with a
physical mechanism, while other peaks, despite resulting statistically
significant, lack a reasonable interpretation and require further
research. The causal analysis provides a complementary view of the
hydrological system’s functioning and challenges us to develop
predictive models that reproduce not only the target variables but also
the diverse time-lagged dependencies observed in environmental data.