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A generalized approach to generate synthetic short-to-medium range hydro-meteorological forecasts
  • Zachary Paul Brodeur,
  • Scott Steinschneider
Zachary Paul Brodeur
Cornell University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Scott Steinschneider
Cornell University
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Abstract

Forecast informed reservoir operations holds great promise as a soft pathway to improve water resources system performance. Methods for generating synthetic forecasts of hydro-meteorological variables are crucial for robust validation of this approach, as numerical weather prediction hindcasts are only available for a relatively short period (10-40 years) that is insufficient for assessing risk related to forecast-informed operations during extreme events. We develop a generalized error model for synthetic forecast generation that is applicable to a range of forecasted variables used in water resources management. The approach samples from the distribution of forecast errors over the available hindcast period and adds them to long records of observed data to generate synthetic forecasts. The approach utilizes the flexible Skew Generalized Error Distribution (SGED) to model marginal distributions of forecast errors that can exhibit heteroskedastic, auto-correlated, and non-Gaussian behavior. An empirical copula is used to capture covariance between variables and forecast lead times and across space. We demonstrate the method for medium-range forecasts across Northern California in two case studies for 1) streamflow and 2) temperature and precipitation, which are based on hindcasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) and the NCEP GEFS/R V2 climate model, respectively. The case studies highlight the flexibility of the model and its ability to emulate space-time structures in forecasts at scales critical for flood management. The proposed method is generalizable to other locations and computationally efficient, enabling fast generation of long synthetic forecast ensembles that are appropriate for water resources risk analysis.