Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Interglaciation and
implications for future change
Abstract
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with
the 1.5–2°C ‘safe limit’ of the United Nations Paris Agreement is
currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent
comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient
ice-sheet model simulations are few and inconsistent. Here we present
new results from transiently-forced ice-sheet modelling experiments. We
evaluate our results against near and far-field proxy reconstructions
and find good agreement. Our simulations indicate that the AIS
contributed approximately 4 m to global mean sea level, peaking at 126
ka BP, with ice lost primarily from the Amundsen but not Ross or Weddell
Sea sectors. The AIS thinned in the area of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin
but did not retreat. Continuing beyond present day our model predicts
that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may already be predisposed to collapse
even in the absence of further environmental change.