Deep learning classification of potentially severe convective storms in
a changing climate
Abstract
A convolutional neural network (CNN) was found to skillfully classify
potentially severe convection of a future climate based on learned
thermodynamic and kinematic thunderstorm features. The CNN was trained
to classify strongly rotating storms from a current climate, then
evaluated against storms from a future climate (end of
21st century), and found to perform with skill and
comparatively in both climates. Strongly rotating storms were of
interest because they are more likely to be supercells, a thunderstorm
type that has a greater likelihood of producing tornadoes and large
hail, which cause billions of losses and dozens of fatalities every
year. Despite training with labels derived from a threshold value of a
severe thunderstorm diagnostic (updraft helicity), the CNN learned
physical characteristics of organized convection and environments that
are not captured by the diagnostic heuristic. Interpretability
techniques revealed that strongly rotating storms are associated with
rotation signatures and thunderstorm updrafts penetrating comparatively
drier vertical mid-levels. Results show that simple heuristics can yield
skillful results with CNNs and can be used to generate labeled data for
supervised learning frameworks. Most importantly, results from this
study show that deep learning is capable of generalizing to future
climate extremes and can exhibit out-of-sample robustness with proper
hyperparameter tuning. As the climate continues to change, and machine
learning techniques continue to proliferate in the physical sciences, it
is important to ensure that techniques perform skillfully with unseen
outliers and climate signals. This study offers evidence that this
objective is possible and based on physical signals.