Towards earthquake early warning across Europe: Probabilistic
quantification of available warning times and their risk-mitigation
potential
Abstract
We explore the feasibility of implementing earthquake early warning
(EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need to take effective
measures for mitigating seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic
networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data
telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil protection authorities
and/or the public), to the nucleation of an earthquake seconds/minutes
before strong shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions
can be taken to significantly decrease detrimental impacts. We
investigate distributions of EEW warning times available across various
parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity models and
seismic network density. We then determine the risk-reduction potential
of these times, by defining their spatial relationship with exposure,
event-dependent vulnerability, and an alert accuracy proxy, using
well-established risk-prediction tools from earthquake engineering. The
results are quantitative EEW feasibility maps, which can be used to
understand how/if effective European EEW systems can be achieved.