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Process-based climate model development harnessing machine learning: I. a calibration tool for parameterization improvement
  • +14
  • Fleur Couvreux,
  • Frédéric Hourdin,
  • Danny Williamson,
  • Romain Roehrig,
  • Victoria Volodina,
  • Najda Villefranque,
  • Catherine Rio,
  • Olivier Audouin,
  • James Salter,
  • eric bazile,
  • Florent Brient,
  • Florence Favot,
  • Rachel Honnert,
  • Marie-Pierre Lefebvre,
  • Jean-Baptiste Madeleine,
  • Quentin Rodier,
  • Wenzhe Xu
Fleur Couvreux
Université Toulouse, CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Frédéric Hourdin
LMD
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Danny Williamson
University of Exeter
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Romain Roehrig
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
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Victoria Volodina
The Alan Turing Institute
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Najda Villefranque
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques
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Catherine Rio
Centre national des recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
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Olivier Audouin
CNRM, 9 University of Toulouse, Meteo-France, CNRS
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James Salter
University of Exeter
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eric bazile
Meteo-France/CNRS
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Florent Brient
CNRM/CNRS/Météo-France
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Florence Favot
Université Toulouse, CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS
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Rachel Honnert
Météo-France, CNRM-CNRS UMR-3589
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Marie-Pierre Lefebvre
Université Toulouse, CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS
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Jean-Baptiste Madeleine
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique
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Quentin Rodier
Université Toulouse, CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS
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Wenzhe Xu
University of Exeter
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Abstract

The development of parameterizations is a major task in the development of weather and climate models. Model improvement has been slow in the past decades, due to the difficulty of encompassing key physical processes into parameterizations, but also of calibrating or â\euro˜tuningâ\euro™ the many free parameters involved in their formulation. Machine learning techniques have been recently used for speeding up the development process. While some studies propose to replace parameterizations by data-driven neural networks, we rather advocate that keeping physical parameterizations is key for the reliability of climate projections. In this paper we propose to harness machine learning to improve physical parameterizations. In particular we use Gaussian process-based methods from uncertainty quantification to calibrate the model free parameters at a process level. To achieve this, we focus on the comparison of single-column simulations and reference large-eddy simulations over multiple boundary-layer cases. Our method returns all values of the free parameters consistent with the references and any structural uncertainties, allowing a reduced domain of acceptable values to be considered when tuning the 3D global model. This tool allows to disentangle deficiencies due to poor parameter calibration from intrinsic limits rooted in the parameterization formulations. This paper describes the tool and the philosophy of tuning in single-column mode. Part 2 shows how the results from our process-based tuning can help in the 3D global model tuning.
Mar 2021Published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems volume 13 issue 3. 10.1029/2020MS002217