Abstract
Estimating changes in the frequency or height of extreme sea levels
(ESLs; e.g., the 100-yr event) is a popular approach for illustrating
future coastal flood risk to societies under various climate change
scenarios. However, these metrics only account for physical water levels
(i.e., the hazard). They do not consider societal outcomes (e.g., loss
of life, property damage). As a result, physical ESL metrics and
associated thresholds may give misleading estimates of future coastal
flood risk. This has implications for climate adaptation decision-making
and risk communication efforts that seek to quantify changes in coastal
flood risk under different climate scenarios. Here, we illustrate how
some risk measures can lead to sizable differences in estimates of
future coastal flood risk, relative to when only considering physical
impacts by considering 1) projected ESLs under +2 degree C and +5 degree
C temperature stabilization scenarios and 2) the current population
exposure of 414 cities around the world. For some locations with a
modest projected increase in the height of an ESL event, the
corresponding change in local population exposure is substantial. This
suggests that physical ESL metrics may be poor surrogates for capturing
some societal impacts. Overall, we find that impacts are highly
localized and depend on the gradient of the population versus elevation
profile over the range of elevations between the current and future ESL
height. While population exposure is just one measure, considering a
variety of human system, natural resource, and ecosystem-based outcomes
may provide a more complete snapshot of coastal flood risk under
different climate scenarios. Such an approach would improve upon
existing methods used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).