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Unprecedented drought challenges for Texas water resources in a changing climate: what do researchers and stakeholders need to know?
  • +9
  • John W. Nielsen-Gammon,
  • Jay Banner,
  • Benjamin Cook,
  • Darrel Tremaine,
  • Corinne Wong,
  • Robert Mace,
  • Huilin Gao,
  • Zong-Liang Yang,
  • Marisa Flores Gonzalez,
  • Richard Hoffpauir,
  • Tom Gooch,
  • Kevin Kloesel
John W. Nielsen-Gammon
Texas A&M University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jay Banner
University of Texas at Austin
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Benjamin Cook
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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Darrel Tremaine
University of Texas at Austin
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Corinne Wong
University of Texas at Austin
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Robert Mace
Texas State University
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Huilin Gao
Texas A&M University
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Zong-Liang Yang
University of Texas at Austin
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Marisa Flores Gonzalez
City of Austin
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Richard Hoffpauir
Hoffpauir Consulting, PLLC
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Tom Gooch
Freese and Nichols Inc
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Kevin Kloesel
University of Oklahoma
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Abstract

Long-range water planning is complicated by factors that are rapidly changing in the 21st century, including climate, population, and water use. Here, we analyze climate factors and drought projections for Texas as an example of a diverse society straddling an aridity gradient to examine how the projections can best serve water stakeholder needs. We find that climate models are robust in projecting drying of summer-season soil moisture and decreasing reservoir supplies for both the eastern and western portions of Texas during the 21st century. Further, projections indicate drier conditions during the latter half of the 21st century than even the most arid centuries of the last 1,000 years that included megadroughts. To illustrate how accounting for drought non-stationarity may increase water resiliency, we consider generalized case studies involving four key stakeholder groups: agricultural producers, large surface water suppliers, small groundwater management districts, and regional water planning districts. We also examine an example of customized climate information being used as input to long-range water planning. We find that while stakeholders value the quantitative capability of climate model outputs, more specific climate-related information better supports resilience planning across multiple stakeholder groups. New suites of tools could provide necessary capacity for both short and long-term, stakeholder-specific adaptive planning.
Aug 2020Published in Earth's Future volume 8 issue 8. 10.1029/2020EF001552