Quasi-biennial oscillation disrupted by abnormal Southern Hemisphere
stratosphere
Abstract
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a repeating cycle of tropical
stratosphere winds reversing direction from eastward to westward roughly
every 14 months. Discovered independently by British and American
scientists the QBO continued undisturbed for 27 cycles from 1953 until
February 2016 when a westward jet unexpectedly formed in the lower
stratosphere during the eastward phase. This disruption is attributed to
unusually high wave momentum fluxes from the Northern Hemisphere. A
second, similar, QBO disruption occurred during the 2019/2020 northern
winter though this time the Arctic polar vortex was exceptionally strong
and wave fluxes weak. Here we show that this latest disruption to the
regular QBO cycling was twice as strong as that seen in 2016 and
resulted from horizontal momentum transport from the Southern
Hemisphere. The disruption began in September 2019 when there was a rare
Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming followed by abnormal
conditions in the stratosphere with the smallest ozone hole since its
discovery and enhanced equatorward momentum fluxes. In both disruptions
the normal downward progression of the QBO halts and the eastward shear
zone above the disruption moves upward assisted by stronger tropical
upwelling during the boreal winter. Results from the two disruptions
provide compelling evidence of a fundamental change in our understanding
of the dynamics of the QBO with extra-tropical influences more
significant than previously thought. In turn, this implies a less
predictable QBO. Furthermore, the expected climate response of the
mechanism we have identified suggests that reoccurring QBO disruptions
are consistent with an emerging signal of climate change weakening QBO
amplitudes as predicted by models.