Társilo Girona

Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
Corresponding Author:tarsilo.girona@gmail.com
Author ProfileVincent Realmuto
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
Author ProfilePaul Lundgren
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
Author ProfileAbstract
Identifying the observables that warn of volcanic eruptions is a major
challenge in natural disasters management. An important, but
under-investigated, observable is the diffuse heating of volcanic soils,
which represents a major energy source at quiescent volcanism. However,
it remains unclear whether diffuse heating, or surface warming, responds
to pre-eruptive processes and varies before eruption. Here we show that
the last eruptions/explosions of seven different volcanoes were preceded
by a systematic long-term (~years) warming of their
flanks. This warming, found through a new statistical analysis of
satellite-based long-wavelength (10.780–11.280 μm) infrared data, is a
phenomenon that operates over large areas (from a few to hundreds of
km2) of the volcanic edifices. Specifically, the median temperature of
the target volcanoes increased with respect to the surroundings by up to
~1.5 ℃ for several years before magmatic, phreatic, and
hydrothermal eruptions. This reflects heat flux increases of up to
~10 W⁄m2 , probably driven by the enhancement of
subsurface hydrothermal activity. Surface warming is detected even
before eruptions that were impossible to anticipate through other
geophysical/geochemical methods (e.g., the 2014 phreatic eruption of
Ontake, Japan; the 2015 magmatic eruption of Calbuco, Chile), thus
opening new horizons to better constrain the thermal budget of volcanoes
and improve eruption forecasts.