Outsized contribution of the semi-arid ecosystems to interannual
variability in North American ecosystems
Abstract
Across North America, interannual variability (IAV) in gross primary
production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and their
relationship with environmental drivers, are poorly understood. Here, we
examine IAV in GPP and NEE and their relationship to environmental
drivers using two state-of-the-science flux products: NEE constrained by
surface and space-based atmospheric CO2 measurements over 2010-2015 and
satellite up-scaled GPP from FluxSat over 2001-2017. We show that the
arid western half of North America provides a larger contribution to IAV
in GPP (104% of east) and NEE (127% of east) than the eastern half, in
spite of smaller magnitude of annual mean GPP and NEE. This occurs
because anomalies in western North America are temporally coherent
across the growing season leading to an amplification of GPP and NEE. In
contrast, IAV in GPP and NEE over eastern North America are dominated by
seasonal compensation effects, associated with opposite responses to
temperature anomalies in spring and summer. Terrestrial biosphere models
in the MsTMIP ensemble partially capture these differences between
eastern and western North America, but generally underestimate the
sensitivity of flux anomalies in western North America to variations in
soil temperature and moisture by 0-31%. This suggests that ecosystems
in western North America may be more sensitive to warming and increasing
aridity than models predict, and that reductions in growing season
productivity and carbon sequestration under climate change may be larger
than predicted by models.