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Influence of hurricane wind field variability on real-time forecast simulations of the coastal environment
  • Alexander Rey,
  • Ryan Patrick Mulligan
Alexander Rey
Queen's University
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Ryan Patrick Mulligan
Queen's University

Corresponding Author:mulligar@queensu.ca

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Dynamic conditions occur in the coastal ocean during severe storms. Forecasting these conditions is challenging, and large-scale numerical models require significant computing power. In this paper, we describe a real-time modelling system (DUNEX-RT), developed in support of the DUring Nearshore Event eXperiment (DUNEX) in North Carolina, USA. The model is run with wave, current, and water level boundary conditions from larger-scale models, and provides 36-hour forecasts of significant wave height, depth-averaged velocity, and water levels every 6-hours using Delft3D-SWAN. Observations and forecasts run at different times are compared and communicated via an interactive website to verify model performance in real-time and to visualize uncertainty from changing inputs. Here, we evaluate model sensitivity to inputs from different atmospheric hindcasts and forecasts for Hurricane Dorian (2019). The real-time model had relatively low errors across the system, indicating that this novel approach can be applied to forecast other areas of the coastal ocean.
Jan 2021Published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans volume 126 issue 1. 10.1029/2020JC016489