Abstract
Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere
lead to changes in radiative fluxes within the atmosphere and at its
boundaries. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative
Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations
made with line-by-line models to identify parameterization error in this
quantity. The instantaneous forcing to which the world has been subject
is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a re-analysis of
present-day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing
with sampling errors of less than 0.01
\si{\watt\per\square\meter}.
Agreement in estimates of forcing among six contributing line-by-line
models is excellent, with standard deviations typically less than 0.025
\si{\watt\per\square\meter},
suggesting that parameterization error will be readily resolved. The
impact of clouds on this forcing is estimated using diagnostic
calculations across a range of climate models, while adjustments due to
stratospheric temperature re-equilibration are estimated assuming fixed
dynamical heating.