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Bounding aerosol radiative forcing of climate change
  • +30
  • Nicolas Bellouin,
  • Johannes Quaas,
  • Ed Gryspeerdt,
  • Stefan Kinne,
  • Philip Stier,
  • Duncan Watson-Parris,
  • Olivier Boucher,
  • Ken Carslaw,
  • Matt Christensen,
  • Anne-Laure Daniau,
  • Jean-Louis Dufresne,
  • Graham Feingold,
  • Stephanie Fiedler,
  • Piers Forster,
  • Andrew Gettelman,
  • Jim Haywood,
  • Florent Malavelle,
  • Ulrike Lohmann,
  • Thorsten Mauritsen,
  • Daniel McCoy,
  • Gunnar Myhre,
  • Johannes Muelmenstaedt,
  • David Neubauer,
  • Anna Possner,
  • Maria Rugenstein,
  • Yousuke Sato,
  • Michael Schulz,
  • Stephen Schwartz,
  • Odran Sourdeval,
  • Trude Storelvmo,
  • Velle Toll,
  • David Winker,
  • Bjorn Stevens
Nicolas Bellouin
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Johannes Quaas
University of Leipzig
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Ed Gryspeerdt
Imperial College London
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Stefan Kinne
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
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Philip Stier
University of Oxford
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Duncan Watson-Parris
University of Oxford
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Olivier Boucher
Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique
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Ken Carslaw
University of Leeds
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Matt Christensen
University of Oxford
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Anne-Laure Daniau
EPOC UMR5805, CNRS, University of Bordeaux
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Jean-Louis Dufresne
Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique
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Graham Feingold
NOAA CSD
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Stephanie Fiedler
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
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Piers Forster
University of Leeds
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Andrew Gettelman
NCAR
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Jim Haywood
University of Exeter, UK Met Office
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Florent Malavelle
University of Exeter
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Ulrike Lohmann
ETH Zurich
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Thorsten Mauritsen
Stockholm University
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Daniel McCoy
University of Leeds
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Gunnar Myhre
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo
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Johannes Muelmenstaedt
University of Leipzig
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David Neubauer
ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
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Anna Possner
University of Frankfurt
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Maria Rugenstein
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
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Yousuke Sato
Hokudai University
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Michael Schulz
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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Stephen Schwartz
Brookhaven National Laboratory
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Odran Sourdeval
Universite de Lille
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Trude Storelvmo
University of Oslo
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Velle Toll
University of Tartu
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David Winker
NASA Langley Research Center
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Bjorn Stevens
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
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Abstract

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth’s radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This poster presents the outcome of an international workshop and subsequent review paper, which quantify the likely range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes narrow the range of the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions compared to the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction and on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to total aerosol radiative forcing ranges that are of similar width to the last IPCC assessment but more clearly based on physical arguments.