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\begin{document}

\title{Stability of the Arctic Winter Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Sea Ice
in CMIP6 Models}



\author[1]{Alistair Duffey}%
\author[2]{Robbie Mallett}%
\author[3]{Victoria R. Dutch}%
\author[4]{Julia Steckling}%
\author[5]{Antoine Hermant}%
\author[6]{Jonathan James Day}%
\author[7]{Felix Pithan}%
\affil[1]{University College London (UCL)}%
\affil[2]{UiT the Arctic University of Norway}%
\affil[3]{University of East Anglia}%
\affil[4]{University of Hamburg}%
\affil[5]{University of Bern}%
\affil[6]{European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecastsu}%
\affil[7]{Alfred Wegener institute for polar and marine research}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 15, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The Arctic winter-time atmospheric boundary layer often features strong
and persistent low-level stability which arises from longwave radiative
cooling of the surface during the polar night. This stable
stratification results in a positive lapse rate feedback, which is a
major contributor to Arctic amplification. A second state, associated
with cloudy conditions, with weaker stability and near-zero net surface
longwave flux is also observed. Previous work has shown that many CMIP5
climate models fail to realistically represent the cloudy state. In this
study, we assess the representation of the Arctic atmospheric boundary
layer over sea ice during the winter months in global climate models
contributing to the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP6). We compare boundary layer process relationships seen in
these models to those in surface-based and radiosonde observations
collected during the recent MOSAiC (2019-2020) field campaign, alongside
the earlier SHEBA (1997-1998) expedition, and from North Pole drifting
stations (1955-1991). Here, we show that a majority of CMIP6 models fail
to realistically represent the cloudy state over winter Arctic sea ice.
Despite this, CMIP6 models have a multi-model mean low-level stability
which falls within the range recorded by observational campaigns, and
are mostly able to capture the observed dependence of low-level
stability on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As the Arctic
warms, CMIP6 models predict a decline of winter low-level stability,
with the Central Arctic's mean stability falling below zero in the
multi-model mean state by the end of the century under the SSP2-4.5
emissions scenario.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Supporting_information_Arctic_boundary_layer_CMIP6.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/599791/articles/862721-stability-of-the-arctic-winter-atmospheric-boundary-layer-over-sea-ice-in-cmip6-models}

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